WINTER IS ALMOST OVER

– Uma Shanker Singh, IFS, DSc.

INTRODUCTION

The IMD classifies a “cold day” as one when the maximum temperature is 4.5°C to 6.4°C below average; a deviation of over 6.4°C is deemed a “severe cold day”. A “cold wave” is declared when the minimum temperature falls 4.5°C to 6.4°C below normal, and a “severe cold wave” when the drop exceeds 6.4°C. India did not record a single cold day or cold wave in February 2026. That marks a clear break from recent years. According to a study, February saw six cold-wave days in 2022, one in 2023, seven in 2024 and five in 2025. With the last such event recorded on January 27, February 2026 is the first in five years when a cold wave has not been recorded.

The winter of 2026 has ended with 24 cold day or cold wave events across 15 states and UTs, making it the second-lowest seasonal total in five years, after 2023 which recorded 21 days. The figure is well below the spike of 38 days in 2024 and also lower than the 30 recorded in 2022 and 26 in 2025. An analysis of maximum and minimum temperatures in 34 cities between 2022–26 shows a consistent trend of warmth between January and March. With the exception of Puducherry, for which baseline normal data is unavailable, all cities experienced day and night temperatures predominantly above normal.

MANY COLD PLACES IN INDIA WITNESSED RISE IN TEMPERATURE

In Kashmir, winter is defined by snow. This winter brought little of it across much of the Kashmir Valley. It has been one of Kashmir’s hottest and also the driest winters in recent past. In Srinagar the average maximum temperature reached 15.6°C, surpassing the previous February high of 14.9°C set in 2016, one of the hottest years in the climate history. In the first week of March, temperatures in Gulmarg, famous for skiing and one of the coldest places in the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir, rose to 17.2°C, nearly 13.7°C above normal and close to an all-time March record.

Such widespread warmth during the coldest phase of the year is highly unusual for Kashmir. The scariest thing that took place is that it experienced unusually intense heat and an early heatwave in May and early June 2026, shattering several seasonal records. The city also recorded a maximum daytime temperature of 31.5°C on May 19th, 2026, which was 6.1°C above the normal average, leading to severe heatwave conditions across the valley, and on 2nd June 2026, the city logged the hottest night of the season so far, with the minimum temperature settling unusually high at 19.2°C. There are many studies which say that long-term observations have shown that the Kashmir Valley’s average temperature rose by about 0.8°C between 1980 and 2016 and found to be increasing at roughly 0.03°C per year.

These trends point toward progressively milder winters and declining snowfall. The various studies have consistently shown that every winter since 2019-20 has ended with below-normal precipitation, making 2025-26 the seventh consecutive deficient winter in Jammu and Kashmir. Weather records also indicate a pattern of persistent rainfall deficits. In 2024, Jammu and Kashmir recorded its driest year in nearly five decades, receiving 870.9mm of rainfall against a normal annual average of 1,232.3mm, a deficit of 29%. The effects are already visible in the region’s rivers. In early March, the Jhelum at Sangam fell below the zero-gauge level, reaching -0.86 feet on 5th March, 2026.

One emerging pattern is a shift in the seasonality of precipitation. Winter precipitation is increasingly moving toward the onset of spring. As in Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh was unusually warm and largely snowless. Leh, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh and Kargil districts recorded some of their warmest winters in years, according to IMD. The winter in 2026 has been unusual in many ways — precipitation has been low while temperatures have remained high.

The period 2022–2026 shows that cold wave events are no longer confined to core winter months, as illustrated by the sharp post-monsoon surge in 2025 driven by an early and widespread November. The shifting timing, along with expanding or contracting geographic spread, signals increasing variability in how cold extremes manifest across India.

GEOGRAPHICAL SHIFTING OF WINTER

Winter severity is also shifting geographically. Between 2022 and 2026, cold waves largely remained concentrated in northern, north-western and central India, though their spatial spread varied year to year, both in winter and post-monsoon. In 2022, cold waves were recorded on 30 of 59 winter days across 14 states, with no impact in southern or south-eastern India. The footprint widened in 2023 to 17 states, the highest in five years, even as the number of cold-wave days fell to 21. Two southern states, Telangana and Karnataka, reported such events, on two and four days respectively.

In 2024, the number of cold days or cold wave days rose to 38 of 60 winter days, but was confined to 13 states, again excluding the southern and south-eastern regions. The spread narrowed further in 2025 to just nine states and UTs, with Telangana the only southern state recording a cold wave, on a single day. In 2026, the geographical reach of cold waves expanded again to 15 states, the second highest after 2023, with Karnataka being the only southern state affected. This reflects intermittent but limited southern penetration in an otherwise north-centric cold wave pattern. Although IMD classifies January and February as winter, cold wave conditions typically begin in November and continue through December, both officially part of the post-monsoon season.

STUDIES ALSO SUPPORT THAT WINTER IS FADING

A study was carried out based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) data between 1980 and 2020 by Rahul Kumar et al. (2025), which reveals that a significant increase in warm days (2–7 days/decade) and warm nights (2–8 days/decade) across India took place during 1980–2020. Concurrently, cold days (-3 to -1 days/decade) and cold nights (-1 to -5 days/decade) have decreased in the same period. The frequency of warm days (3 ± 0.8 days/dec) has increased at a slightly higher rate than that of warm nights (2 ± 1 days/dec), which is consistent with the decrease in cold days (-1.8 ± 0.8 days/dec) and cold nights (-2 ± 0.8 days/dec) in 1980–2020, and it is three-fold in Northeast (NE) and Peninsular India (PI) (-2 to -7 days/dec) in winter.

Future projections under the high emission scenario indicate a five-fold increase in warm days and nights, alongside a four-to-six-fold reduction in cold days and nights by 2080–2100. The study also unfolds the severe warming in India and its potential to trigger more extreme weather events, regional climate change, and associated natural disasters such as frequent heat waves. These changes can have substantial implications for crop yields, heat stress, and energy demand.

In another study carried out by A K Jaiswal (2010) over a temperature series of 174 stations well distributed over the country, statistically analysed to document the long-term variations and trends in monthly mean maximum and minimum temperatures for January to March, the study revealed that February month has emerged as the warmer winter month over North India, where the increase in both maximum (+0.29°C/decade) and minimum (+0.38°C/decade) temperatures is highest, with a noteworthy increase in maximum temperature at a rate 1.5 times that of the South India averaged increase.

REASONS FOR FADING WINTER

Climate change is at play. The Mediterranean weather systems responsible for most winter snowfall in Kashmir are becoming more erratic on account of rising temperature. While some disturbances appear to intensify toward late winter, overall snowfall during the core winter months has declined. Winter snow plays a critical role in the Himalayan ecosystem.

A study was carried out by Abhijit Gangane on “Falling Trend of Winter Lightning Over Western India and Its Possible Relation with Western Disturbances” in the year 2025, which reveals that during the Indian winter, the southerly propagation of cold air at middle and upper altitudes is caused by a trough in westerly jet streams due to the effect of Western Disturbances (WDs). Sometimes, this advection of cold and dry air above near-surface moist and warm air can make the atmosphere conditionally unstable. Therefore, these WDs are associated with thunderstorm formation and lightning activity over northern India (north of 20° north); however, occasionally, the effect of WDs extends up to the entry point of southern India.

Many researchers have also shown a decreasing trend of WD frequencies and winter precipitation over the Indian region. The study also addresses important aspects of climate change, as lightning activity and thunderstorm days decreased steadily over western India, suggesting the falling trend is possibly linked to the weakening and reduced frequency of WDs from 1997 to 2023. While global trends suggest increasing lightning with climate change, this study reveals a decreasing trend in lightning activity, highlighting the uneven regional impacts of climate change.

The issue of dwindling snowfall in the Himalayas is gradually emerging as a serious concern due to the intensifying climate change crisis in the region. Recent research reveals that this decline is not a mere temporary phenomenon but part of a long-term pattern linked to climate change. According to the India Meteorological Department, winters in several parts of the Himalayas have become warmer and drier, resulting in reduced snowfall. This is particularly critical because the Himalayan range is vital for ensuring water security for millions of people across Asia.

It has been cautioned that the decrease in snowfall in the Himalayas might persist provided that global temperatures continue to rise. According to the India Meteorological Department, even warmer winters might be seen in the coming years, along with unpredictable climatic conditions, which might further contribute to a decrease in snowfall. Such extreme weather patterns would lead to erratic rainfall and the destabilisation of glaciers.

FOREST FIRE ON INCREASE

The forest fires swept the state’s hills unusually early in the season. Between November 1, 2025 and February 14, 2026, the state forest department recorded 54 fire incidents, affecting roughly 42 hectares of forest, about 60 football fields. As temperatures continued to rise, another 60 fires were reported between February 15 and March 14, affecting a similar area. From a seasonal perspective, forest fires have not only occurred earlier than usual but also spread more widely across India.

Many studies show that forest fires in the winter of 2026 (January–February) rose by more than 80% in the past decade. Fire activity in forested regions was over 50% higher than in 2024, the warmest year on record. Northeast India reported the most intense fires. In February, large swathes of Arunachal Pradesh and Nagaland were engulfed for a week, prompting sustained aerial firefighting by the Indian Air Force (IAF) in high-altitude Himalayan terrain. Helicopters were deployed to spray water at elevations above 2,800 metres. In the Lohit valley of Arunachal Pradesh, over 12,000 litres of water were dropped to contain the flames.

The fires in the state reportedly began on February 13, 2026, affected multiple areas, and prompted evacuations in some localities. Local media reported that Indian Army personnel joined IAF teams to tackle fires in remote parts of Anjaw district, at altitudes of 900 to 1,060 metres. Arunachal Pradesh experienced an unusually warm and dry winter from January to March, 2026. There was reduced rainfall, near-zero soil moisture and shrinking water sources. The winter in 2026 felt hotter than usual. Normally this part of India receives rainfall during September and October from the retreating monsoon, but this year there was almost none.